Recent special elections have suggested that we, as a party, are getting our mojo back. Not only did we defend the state senate in Delaware, we did so by improving on our margin in the district. In Connecticut's 32 Senate District on Tuesday, Feb. 28 we turned a 67-33 loss in 2016 into a 55-45 loss, a 24 point improvement. To date, however, we haven't actually gained seats, only held. That may change soon.
New Hampshire is providing not 1, but 4 special elections in coming days, in 3 we have the opportunity to flip a district that was won by theRepublicans in 2016. Most of these districts are relatively close and with the elastic electorate of New Hampshire, coupled with our renewed vigor and purpose, victory is a very real possibility.
Carroll 6 is one of two special elections scheduled for 5/23/2017 with the primary on 4/4/2018. This district, which comprises the city ofWolfeboro, opened up when Republican Rep. Harold Parker took a job in Governor Chris Sununu’s (-R) administration. It's a flotella district with two Republican representatives serving, in 2016 the difference between the lowest vote getting winner and highest vote earning loser was 293 votes or 8%. This is similar to the presidential numbers, which were 51-44 Trump. Our candidate is Edie DesMarais who established the Wolfeboro area children's center. A district with a slight Republican lean is winnable with a good candidate and lots of energy and focus.
Hillsboro 44 opened up following the passing of Representative Andre Martel(-R) in December. Comprising Litchfield and Manchester Wards 8 and 9, this district is similar to Carroll 6 in numerous ways. Its primary and general election are scheduled on the same date, it's also a Flotella district with two reps. Further solidifying the similarities is that the difference between second winner and first loser was 761 votes, or 7% and Trump won 52/43. Neither party has selected their nominee, but its Republican lean isn't insurmountable and it should definitely be a target.
Grafton 9 is a little more difficult to explain, as the representative who left is not clear. Based on the House roster, it appears that Representative Jeff Shackett (-R) is no longer in office. The district is based in five towns, Alexandria, Ashland, Bridgewater, Bristol and Grafton and is another flotella. Also, unlike the previous two, a special election has not been scheduled yet for this district or the next one down (Merrimack 18). While it appears more difficult than others based on Presidential toplines (55-40 Trump) the downballot numbers tell a different story. The bottom winner/top loser calculation separates them by 184 votes, or 5% even as Trump was romping upballot.
Finally, there is Merrimack 18. There are numerous ways this district varies from others mentioned. The first is that, in full disclosure, thisis my district and I'm thinking about running. Second, it's the only one that isn't a flotella, which makes the analysis much easier. Third, it only comprises a single ward of a town, Concord Ward 9 specifically, unlike the others which consist of multiple wards and/or towns. Finally, the incumbent was a Democrat, Rep. Andrew N.DeTreville who resigned back in February so there's no chance for again, only to hold our ground. It was a solidly Democratic district in 2016, going for Hillary 59/37, though the actual election was closer, with DeTreville winning by a smaller 11 point margin. This suggests that a win is by no means guaranteed, but Democrats are heavily favored.
While these seats won't give us the majority in the NH House, it will be a start. The Democrats had their largest minority in the House when the new session began. With that minority, they killed Right to Work, fought against attacks on our voting rights and got a bill that would prohibit discrimination based on gender identity passed on committee 15-2 which will face the House soon. New Hampshire Democrats have accomplished much with their caucus, let's work to elect more. so they can do more.
http://www.unionleader.com/Dan-Tuohys-Granite-Status-Chuck-Morse-to-fill-in-while-governor-heads-to-DC-022322017
http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-senate-special-election-20170228-story.html
http://www.fosters.com/news/20170227/dover-councilor-adds-voice-to-transgender-protections-bill
